**Market Direction for the Week: Impact of Macro Data, F&O Expiry, and Global Cues**
Last week, the BSE benchmark soared by 649.37 points, marking a 0.80 percent increase. Similarly, the NSE Nifty also closed with gains of 282 points, reflecting a 1.1 percent rise. The positive momentum in the markets has been attributed to various factors such as the release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues.
**Key Factors Driving Market Movement**
Analysts anticipate that the upcoming week will be influenced by a combination of factors that will shape the direction of the stock market. These factors include the release of significant macroeconomic data, the monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as they are likely to have an impact on market sentiment.
According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, “This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action. The focus will shift to monthly F&O expiry as well as global cues. Markets on Monday would react to commentaries of the US Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium.”
**US Federal Reserve Chair’s Remarks**
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled that the central bank is considering a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting. Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium laid the groundwork for future interest rate reductions, stating that “The time has come for policy to adjust.”
Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer at Axis Securities PMS, commented on Powell’s remarks, stating, “The market has been expecting an interest rate cut during the next Federal Reserve meeting in September. There are indications that the rate cuts could happen at a faster pace, especially with the weakening of jobs data.”
**Global Market Impact**
Following Powell’s speech, US markets experienced an upward movement and closed higher on Friday. Traders are anticipating increased volatility in the subsequent sessions due to the monthly F&O expiry scheduled for the week.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that positive global sentiment from ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, along with a decline in crude prices, contributed to the rally in the Indian market. The positive momentum in global markets is expected to have a spillover effect on Indian equities.
**Institutional Activity and Investor Sentiment**
In terms of institutional activity, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled out Rs 1,608.89 crore from equities, while domestic institutional investors continued their buying streak by purchasing Rs 13,020.29 crore worth of stocks during the previous week.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice-President of Research at Religare Broking, highlighted that domestically, investors will keep a close watch on economic data releases, including GDP figures and infrastructure output. The upcoming release of GDP figures for the first quarter of the current fiscal year on August 30 will be a key data point for investors to assess the health of the economy.
**Conclusion**
As the stock market gears up for another week of trading, investors will be closely monitoring a confluence of factors that are likely to influence market direction. From the impact of macroeconomic data releases to global cues and the monthly F&O expiry, market participants will need to stay vigilant and adapt to changing market dynamics. With the US Federal Reserve signaling a potential rate cut and positive global sentiments, the Indian market is poised for an interesting week ahead.
